Arts / Cultureone clear front-runner

Maura Higgins Surges to Front of Dancing with the Stars Race

A massive single-day swing has turned a long-shot into the field's clear favorite, though rivals remain close enough to upend the finale.

Source: Kalshi market “Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner”

Maura Higgins: probably not (40%)
Resolved The money put Jenna Dewan at 25% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome at publication Maura Higgins 40% Probably not · Falling · C · tracked 15 days peak 40% (5d ago) · low 17% (10d ago) very unlikely → probably not 3 tier changes over tracking period
24h move at publication ▲ 34.0 pts Maura Higgins
Traded 24h at publication $417K $1.3M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-07

At publication: 40% → Now: 35% (live) — the article below reflects the market as of 2026-09-17 08:26 UTC.

Maura Higgins has emerged as the leading contender to win Dancing with the Stars Season 35, after what amounts to one of the sharpest single-day swings the competition has seen. What had registered as a very unlikely outcome just days earlier now looks like the race to beat — though with four other credible finalists still in the picture, the competition is far from settled.

The move is striking in its speed. Over the past fifteen days, Higgins's chances bottomed out around 17% before recovering steadily, and then surging dramatically in the past 24 hours to reach 40%. That is not a drift — it is a decisive reallocation of money away from the field and toward one name. The most plausible explanation is that viewers and insiders with a feel for audience voting momentum have concluded that Higgins's recent performances, public profile, or fan mobilization have broken meaningfully in her favor. Reality competition shows live and die on audience voting, and when money moves this fast, it typically reflects a read on that ground-level energy rather than any single judges' score.

Harry Shum Jr. sits at 23% and Jenna Dewan at 17%, meaning the two runners-up together account for a share of the field that could easily overtake Higgins if her support fragments or if a standout performance from either rival reshapes the finale narrative. Amber Glenn and Ezra Frech, who shed significant ground in the past day, appear increasingly on the outside of a genuine three-way race at the top.

The multi-day trend is worth watching carefully here. Higgins's odds have been volatile — sliding to a low point ten days ago before recovering — which suggests the underlying sentiment around her has been contested, not smoothly building. The current 40% peak matches the highest level recorded in the tracking window, meaning this is a test of a ceiling as much as a breakout. With moderate liquidity in this market, that volatility deserves a measure of interpretive caution: the money leans toward Higgins, but it has not yet committed with the kind of depth that would make this look settled.

For viewers, the implication is that Higgins likely enters the finale with the broadest active coalition of supporters — the combination of a high-profile background from Love Island, genuine dancing improvement, and a fanbase practiced at mobilizing votes. For her competitors, especially Shum and Dewan, the window to close the gap likely runs through a finale performance that generates a distinct viral moment. The market's current read suggests that absent such a shock, Higgins is the favorite — but in a field this compressed, a single night's performances can still rewrite the outcome.

Where the money stood at publication

Maura Higgins 40% ▲ 34.0
Harry Shum Jr. 23% ▼ 2.0
Jenna Dewan 17% ▲ 1.0
Amber Glenn 6% ▼ 6.0
Ezra Frech 5% ▼ 13.0
Jackson Olson 5% ▼ 5.0
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