Peltola Leads Alaska's 2026 Senate Race but Her Grip Is Slipping
Source: Kalshi market “Alaska Senate winner? (Person)”
Mary Peltola: very likely (93%)
Leading outcome
Mary Peltola 93%
Very likely · Rising · A · tracked 78 days
peak 93% · low 57% (77d ago)
3 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 93.0pp
24h move
▲
3.3 pts
Mary Peltola
Traded 24h
$841K
$2.0M all time
Resolves by
2027-11-03
Source markets
87
87 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Mary Peltola
93%
▲
3.3
Dan Sullivan
6%
▼
6.9
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
1%
0.0
Gerald Heikes
1%
0.0
Ann Diener
0%
0.0
Richard Grayson
0%
0.0
Source markets for this story
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Scott Colom 97% · +58.4 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 93% · +4.1 24h
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 26% · +8.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 99% · +1.6 24h
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket · J.D. Vance 34% · -1.3 24h
2028 Republican presidential nominee
Kalshi · J.D. Vance 31% · -2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 98% · +3.2 24h
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 23% · +8.0 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Scott Colom (D) 98% · +73.9 24h
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket · Jon Ossoff 18% · +4.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Kalshi · 56 88% · +62.0 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
Polymarket · None 94% · +7.0 24h
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket · Jon Ossoff 26% · +7.2 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Below 45 90% · +17.0 24h
NC-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Raymond Smith Jr. 73% · +18.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 94% · +4.9 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 1.5+ pts 100% · +4.3 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · -5.9 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · El-Sayed, 3+ pts 100% · +12.9 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 12 to 14% 71% · +50.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Mary Peltola 93% · +3.3 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)
Kalshi · At least 46 99%
AZ-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Eli Crane 72% · +40.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
Polymarket · 44 93% · +54.4 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 74% · +16.1 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026?
Kalshi · Mississippi 65% · +45.0 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ossoff, 2+ pts 100% · +0.9 24h
Texas Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Hinojosa, 1+ pts 100% · +21.9 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Cooper, 1+ pts 100% · +2.4 24h
Florida Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Moody, 1+ pts 99% · +8.7 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Talarico 12%+ 95% · +73.0 24h
NC-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Chuck Hubbard 92% · +73.1 24h
CO-04 House winner?
Kalshi · Eileen Laubacher 89% · +20.0 24h
Florida Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Donalds, 0.5+ pts 99% · +5.7 24h
MN-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Jake Johnson 94% · +31.6 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Jackson, 0.5+ pts 100% · +20.8 24h
North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
Kalshi · Murphy, 1+ pts 9% · -28.9 24h
CA-07 House winner?
Kalshi · Doris Matsui 93% · +19.0 24h
Ohio Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Brown, 1+ pts 100% · +1.1 24h
2028 popular vote margin of victory?
Kalshi · Democratic by 9.0% or more 52% · +30.0 24h
AZ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Eli Crane (R) 71% · +42.0 24h
Alaska House winner?
Kalshi · Nick Begich III 87% · +13.0 24h
NV-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 100% · +16.2 24h
Wyoming Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Barlow, 37+ pts 100% · +46.9 24h
Minnesota Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Flanagan, 1+ pts 100% · +10.9 24h
2028 Democratic VP nominee
Kalshi · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% · +3.9 24h
WA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Michael Baumgartner 85% · +22.0 24h
AR-02 House winner?
Kalshi · French Hill 94% · +36.0 24h
Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
Kalshi · Above 8.20M 99% · +1.0 24h
South Dakota Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Rounds, 9+ pts 100% · +20.7 24h
TN-04 House winner?
Kalshi · Victoria Broderick 94% · +88.0 24h
Ohio Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Acton, 1+ pts 100% · +3.5 24h
Nebraska Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ricketts, 1+ pts 100% · +67.9 24h
Arkansas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Cotton, 4+ pts 99% · +8.3 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrats 12-14% 68% · +44.0 24h
2028 Senate winner
Kalshi · Democratic party 88% · +15.0 24h
Iowa Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Sand, 1+ pts 100% · +13.8 24h
Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
Kalshi · Above 56 67% · +33.0 24h
CO-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jeff Hurd (R) 99% · +70.2 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 99% · +32.9 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul Barringer (D) 99% · +38.9 24h
TN-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Brent Taylor (R) 100% · +24.0 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nancy Lacore (D) 99% · +11.8 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Richard Ojeda (D) 99% · +29.9 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 98% · +7.4 24h
NC-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Chuck Hubbard (D) 92% · +72.5 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · Below 190 100% · +4.2 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Zack Mullock (D) 99% · +14.4 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) 99% · +68.9 24h
AZ-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Mark Lamb (R) 96% · +31.6 24h
AR-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · French Hill (R) 94% · +32.9 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket · Ossoff 18%+ 90% · +63.8 24h
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket · Democratic 67% · -0.5 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 99% · +2.8 24h
CO-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Eileen Laubacher (D) 92% · +25.6 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · El-Sayed 6-9% 92% · +46.5 24h
Closest Senate Race?
Polymarket · Mississippi 55% · +40.6 24h
TN-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Victoria Broderick (D) 95% · +92.6 24h
NC-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cyril Jefferson (D) 100% · +47.0 24h
WA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Michael Baumgartner (R) 82% · +22.0 24h
AK-AL House Election Winner
Polymarket · Republican Party 85% · +34.5 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 99% · +65.6 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 99% · +6.1 24h
NY-21 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anthony Constantino (R) 99% · +70.5 24h
CA-23 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jay Obernolte (R) 77% · -15.8 24h
OH-10 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 99% · +33.6 24h
MN-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jake Johnson (D) 94% · +30.8 24h
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
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