World

The Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed to Normal Traffic Through Year's End

By Priced In News Staff

unlikely (22%)

Leading outcome US 22% Unlikely · Falling · B

24h move ▼ 10.0 pts US

Traded 24h $14K $31K all time

Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

US 22% ▼ 10.0

UK 18% ▼ 10.0

France 14% ▼ 21.5

Netherlands 8% ▼ 28.0

Australia 8% ▼ 16.5

Germany 7% ▼ 17.5

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · August 31 100%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h

Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · September 30 12% · +1.5 24h

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · September 30 68%

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 60% · -1.0 24h

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 83%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 26% · -2.5 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%

Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? Polymarket · Yes 100%

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 90% · +1.2 24h