Worldall but decided

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner”

AfD: virtually certain (100%)
Resolved The money put AfD at 92% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome AfD 100% Virtually certain · Stable · A · tracked 53 days peak 100% (27d ago) · low 50% (29d ago) a coin flip → virtually certain 6 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 52.4 pts AfD
Traded 24h $552K $2.4M all time
Resolves by 2026-09-20

Where the money stands

AfD 100% ▲ 52.4
SPD 0% ▼ 52.4
The Money Talks — The AfD's Dominance in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Is All But Certain
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Leads Israel's Next Government in a Volatile, Unsettled Race

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (45%)

A decisive shift toward Netanyahu — up 4 points as Eizenkot shed nearly 7 — signals money is hedging against a Netanyahu comeback, but with conviction rung crossings numbering eight, this race has refused to settle and could flip again before October.

Updated 3:12 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.2M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 81 days range 58% (55d ago) – 42% (7d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → a coin flip 8 tier changes venues agree
World Flávio Bolsonaro on track to win

Flávio Bolsonaro Likely Wins Brazil's Presidency, but Lula Is Closing In

Flávio Bolsonaro: likely (81%)

A second-round debate now looks virtually certain, and Bolsonaro's margin there is tightening — a 40% chance he wins by fewer than four points signals a genuinely competitive finish, not a coronation, even as he holds a strong overall lead.

Updated 7:31 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.2M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 81 days range 89% (8d ago) – 50% (35d ago) 3 tier changes venues disagree 3.5pp
World

Ukraine Is Virtually Certain to Strike Moscow on October 11

virtually certain (98%)

What had been a coin flip is now a near-certainty — but this market has flipped conviction three times, so caution is warranted. Peace-talk odds fell sharply today even as a ceasefire by end-2027 holds at 70%, painting a war that escalates in the near term before any negotiated off-ramp.

Updated 7:29 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $61K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 14 days range 100% (12d ago) – 48% (7d ago) 4 tier changes