U.S.all but decided

São Paulo's Senate Second Seat Is Wide Open

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place”

André do Prado: virtually certain (99%)
Resolved The money put Marina Silva at 30% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome André do Prado 99% Virtually certain · Rising · C · tracked 54 days peak 91% (13d ago) · low 30% (53d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 3.5pp
24h move ▲ 42.4 pts André do Prado
Traded 24h $15K $136K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05
Source markets 5 5 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

André do Prado 99% ▲ 42.4
Dra. Eliana Ferreira 0% 0.0
Ednelson Cesaretti 0% 0.0
Geraldo Rufino 0% 0.0
Guilherme Derrite 0% ▼ 13.0
Maíra de Souza 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · +2.1 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 40% · -1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · +1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 79% · +15.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará Polymarket · Lula 79% · -0.5 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Updated 12:47 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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Updated 1:20 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $877K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 81 days venues disagree 28.1pp