U.S.Rayssa Furlan on track to win

Rayssa Furlan Is Likely to Win the Amapá Senate Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place”

Rayssa Furlan: very likely (97%)
Resolved The money put Rayssa Furlan at 84% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Rayssa Furlan 97% Very likely · C · tracked 51 days likely → very likely venues disagree 3.5pp
24h move ▲ 11.0 pts Rayssa Furlan
Traded 24h $14K $61K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05
Source markets 5 5 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Rayssa Furlan 97% ▲ 11.0
Alliny Serrão 0% ▼ 1.3
Lucas Barreto 0% ▼ 2.5
Randolfe 0% ▼ 8.7
Acácio Favacho 0% 0.0
Capi 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · +2.1 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 40% · -1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · +1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 79% · +15.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará Polymarket · Lula 79% · -0.5 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

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Updated 12:47 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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What had been a long-shot Democratic Senate takeover is now the clear directional bet — Texas, where Democrats are favored at 61-62%, is the linchpin; if it flips, the map for a Republican majority collapses entirely.

Updated 5:58 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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U.S. wide open

The 2028 Democratic Nomination Race Has No Clear Front-Runner

Gavin Newsom: unlikely (14%)

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Updated 1:20 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $877K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 81 days venues disagree 28.1pp