U.S.wide open

Florida Senate Race Tightening Around a Narrow Moody Win

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory”

Moody 3-6%: unlikely (24%)
Leading outcome Moody 3-6% 24% Unlikely · B probably not → unlikely venues disagree 14.8pp
24h move ▲ 4.5 pts Moody 3-6%
Traded 24h $23K $98K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 in 1 day
Source markets 126 126 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Moody 3-6% 24% ▲ 4.5
Moody 0-3% 22% ▼ 4.2
Moody 6-9% 14% ▼ 9.5
Moody 9-12% 14% ▲ 2.5
Moody 12-15% 8% ▲ 6.0
Nixon 0-3% 8% ▼ 1.2

Source markets for this story

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Polymarket · None 32% · +1.0 24h
Who will control the House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 93% · -0.7 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 72% · -2.0 24h
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 72% · -2.0 24h
Who will control the Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 73% · -2.0 24h
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi · Byron Donalds 64% · -2.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 77% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 94% · -1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 74% · -1.0 24h
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 66% · +5.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 76% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 74% · -1.0 24h
California Governor winner? (Person) Kalshi · Xavier Becerra 97%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 54% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 45 17%
Ohio Governor winner? Kalshi · Amy Acton 82% · -1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 70% · -3.0 24h
New York Governor winner? Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 96% · -0.5 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 72%
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 91% · -1.2 24h
California Governor winner? Kalshi · Xavier Becerra 97%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 78% · -1.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Adam Hamilton 62% · -1.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 70% · +3.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 51% · +1.0 24h
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Moody 88% · +2.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 55% · +1.0 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 63% · +2.0 24h
Massachusetts Governor winner? Kalshi · Maura Healey 97% · -0.9 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 71% · +2.0 24h
Florida Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) 64%
Georgia Governor winner? Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms 70% · +1.0 24h
Georgia Senate winner? Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 97%
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 85% · -2.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 52% · -0.7 24h
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 86%
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 71%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 70% · -3.0 24h
Kansas Governor winner? Kalshi · Ty Masterson 65% · -5.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · Below 53 45% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 0.5+ pts 71% · -2.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 59% · -5.0 24h
Texas Governor-Senate combo Kalshi · Greg Abbott and James Talarico win 44% · +5.0 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 92% · -2.0 24h
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi · Rob Sand 88% · +1.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 94%
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 70% · -7.0 24h
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 98% · -0.6 24h
VA-05 House winner? Kalshi · John McGuire 54% · -10.0 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Iowa 26% · +5.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Adam Hamilton (D) 64% · +3.0 24h
TX-23 House winner? Kalshi · Brandon Herrera 65% · +10.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 72%
Louisiana Senate winner? Kalshi · Julia Letlow 84% · -4.0 24h
Oregon Governor winner? Kalshi · Tina Kotek 85% · +4.0 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 84% · +1.0 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 88% · +2.0 24h
Tennessee Governor winner? Kalshi · Marsha Blackburn 94%
Texas Senate: margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 2-4% 18% · -2.0 24h
TX-15 House winner? Kalshi · Bobby Pulido 88% · -1.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90% · +2.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70% · -1.0 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Josh Turek (D) 50% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Kalshi · At least 46 99% · +6.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts 28% · +1.0 24h
Michigan Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jocelyn Benson (D) 94% · -1.4 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 80% · +5.0 24h
Wisconsin Governor winner? Kalshi · David Crowley 86% · +2.0 24h
Florida Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Donalds, 0.5+ pts 68% · +10.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 70% · +1.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 70% · -2.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) 96% · +1.0 24h
Oklahoma Governor winner? Kalshi · Mike Mazzei 91%
Vermont Governor winner? Kalshi · Phil Scott 67% · -2.0 24h
New York Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 97% · -0.5 24h
VA-02 House winner? Kalshi · Elaine Luria 94% · +2.7 24h
PA-01 House winner? Kalshi · Bob Harvie 67% · +12.0 24h
NV-02 House winner? Kalshi · David Flippo 52% · -15.0 24h
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 60% · +4.0 24h
FL-25 House winner? Kalshi · Jared Moskowitz 84% · +3.0 24h
South Carolina Governor winner? Kalshi · Alan Wilson 95% · -0.9 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 94% · +1.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Mary Peltola 69% · -2.0 24h
Ohio Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Brown, 1+ pts 60% · -5.0 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Jackson, 0.5+ pts 67% · -6.0 24h
MO-02 House winner? Kalshi · Ann Wagner 59% · -4.0 24h
FL-14 House winner? Kalshi · Kathy Castor 72% · -3.0 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brad Knott (R) 60% · -7.0 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Murphy (R) 58%
Georgia Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 68% · -1.0 24h
AZ-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Amish Shah (D) 79% · -1.5 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 92%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 88% · -1.1 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 0-3% 28% · +4.0 24h
North Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D) 98%
Massachusetts Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Maura Healey (D) 97% · -1.5 24h
Louisiana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Julia Letlow (R) 86% · -2.0 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jeff Van Drew (R) 50% · -18.0 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · Below 190 45% · +1.5 24h
FL-22 House Election Winner Polymarket · Pia Dandiya (D) 64% · -11.5 24h
Iowa Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 90% · +2.0 24h
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket · David Crowley (D) 88% · +2.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 48+ 44% · -2.0 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 57% · -2.0 24h
TX-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brandon Herrera (R) 64% · +9.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 75% · +2.5 24h
Vermont Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Phil Scott (R) 66% · -5.0 24h
TX-15 House Election Winner Polymarket · Bobby Pulido (D) 88% · -1.0 24h
Senate Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine Polymarket · Dems sweep 63% · -4.5 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms? Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 51% · +22.2 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Richard Hudson (R) 62% · -6.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 90% · -2.5 24h
Oklahoma Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Mike Mazzei (R) 90% · -2.5 24h
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Tennessee Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Marsha Blackburn (R) 94% · +0.5 24h
Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Josh Shapiro (D) 98% · -0.5 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Polymarket · Democratic Party 85% · -1.0 24h
Oregon Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Tina Kotek (D) 86% · +2.0 24h
CA-07 House Election Winner (by individual) Polymarket · Doris Matsui 76% · +8.0 24h
FL-14 House Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Castor (D) 74% · -3.0 24h
Texas Senate and Governor Combo Polymarket · Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 43% · +4.5 24h
AL-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Shomari Figures (D) 55% · +7.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · El-Sayed 6-9% 23% · +0.5 24h
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Moody 3-6% 24% · +4.5 24h
FL-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Dan Green (R) 62% · -1.0 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 53% · -11.5 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. leaning ≤46 and ≤192

Republicans Are Headed for a Dramatically Weakened Congress

≤46 and ≤192: a coin flip (51%)

A Democratic House is already near-certain, and the Senate is now leaning Democratic too — what had been a remote scenario for Republican collapse is now a coin flip, signaling that the 2026 midterms may deliver a sweeping repudiation of unified Republican government.

Updated 2:15 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $46K markets read 126 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 7 days range 32% (0d ago) – 26% (3d ago) resolves in 1 day trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip venues disagree 14.8pp
U.S. wide open

The 2028 Democratic Nomination Is a Wide-Open Race With No Clear Favorite

Gavin Newsom: unlikely (17%)

Gavin Newsom leads by a single point over Jon Ossoff in a field where the top three candidates together barely crack half the probability — on the Republican side, J.D. Vance holds the nomination lead but is priced to lose the general, leaving 2028 genuinely up for grabs.

Updated 10:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.2M markets read 7 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 97 days venues disagree 18.1pp
U.S.

California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Is Unlikely to Pass

unlikely (21%)

What had been a long shot is now an even longer one — the initiative has lost ground steadily since peaking months ago, and without a dramatic shift in California's political or fiscal environment, the ballot measure looks headed for defeat.

Updated 4:31 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $98K markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 80 days range 36% (79d ago) – 23% (0d ago) 3 tier changes