U.S.leaning ≤46 and ≤192

Republicans Are Headed for a Dramatically Weakened Congress

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?”

≤46 and ≤192: a coin flip (48%)
Leading outcome ≤46 and ≤192 48% A coin flip · Stable · B · tracked 7 days peak 32% · low 26% (3d ago) probably not → a coin flip venues disagree 13.0pp
24h move ▲ 20.0 pts ≤46 and ≤192
Traded 24h $48K $257K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 in 1 day
Source markets 86 86 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

≤46 and ≤192 48% ▲ 20.0
47–49 and 193–207 23% ▼ 3.3
50–52 and 208–222 11% ▲ 2.6
47–49 and ≤192 9% ▼ 3.5
≤46 and 193–207 9% ▼ 1.1
≥53 and 208–222 4% ▲ 1.9

Source markets for this story

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Polymarket · None 32% · +1.0 24h
Who will control the House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 94% · -0.6 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 74%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 71% · -3.0 24h
Who will control the Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 73% · -2.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 76% · -2.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 94% · -1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 76% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 76% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 74% · -1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 56% · +3.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 47 17% · +3.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 91% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 76% · -3.0 24h
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Moody 88% · +2.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 51% · +1.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 55% · +0.5 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 70%
Georgia Senate winner? Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 97%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 27% · -1.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 54% · +0.9 24h
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 86% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 75% · +6.0 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 70% · -3.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · Below 53 44% · -2.0 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 92% · -2.0 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 72% · -5.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 94%
TX-23 House winner? Kalshi · Brandon Herrera 59% · +3.0 24h
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 93% · +2.1 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Adam Hamilton (D) 64% · +2.0 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Iowa 26% · +7.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 72%
Blue tsunami in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 68% · +3.0 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 86% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate: margin of victory Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 0-2% 37% · +18.0 24h
TX-15 House winner? Kalshi · Bobby Pulido 88% · -1.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90% · +2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Kalshi · At least 46 99% · +4.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70% · -1.0 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Josh Turek (D) 50% · +1.0 24h
Georgia Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Jon Ossoff (D) 97%
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts 27% · -1.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 70% · +1.0 24h
NJ-02 House winner? Kalshi · Jeff Van Drew 53% · -17.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 70% · -2.0 24h
VA-01 House winner? Kalshi · Shannon Taylor 80% · +16.0 24h
VA-02 House winner? Kalshi · Elaine Luria 94% · +3.2 24h
PA-01 House winner? Kalshi · Bob Harvie 69% · +14.0 24h
Arkansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Tom Cotton 96%
NV-02 House winner? Kalshi · David Flippo 52% · -15.0 24h
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 60% · +3.0 24h
FL-25 House winner? Kalshi · Jared Moskowitz 85% · +4.0 24h
FL-26 House winner? Kalshi · Mario Díaz-Balart 86%
Ohio Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Brown, 3+ pts 55%
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Mary Peltola 69% · -1.0 24h
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami? Kalshi · Yes 42% · +6.0 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Jackson, 0.5+ pts 67% · -6.0 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brad Knott (R) 60% · -7.0 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Murphy (R) 57% · -1.0 24h
AZ-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Amish Shah (D) 79% · -1.5 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 92% · +1.0 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jeff Van Drew (R) 56% · -13.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 0-3% 32% · +9.0 24h
North Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D) 98%
Louisiana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Julia Letlow (R) 84% · -2.0 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · Below 190 44%
FL-22 House Election Winner Polymarket · Pia Dandiya (D) 64% · -11.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 90% · -2.5 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 48+ 44% · -2.0 24h
TX-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brandon Herrera (R) 60% · +5.0 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 57% · -2.0 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms? Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 48% · +20.0 24h
Senate Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine Polymarket · Dems sweep 64% · -4.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 76% · +2.1 24h
TX-15 House Election Winner Polymarket · Bobby Pulido (D) 88% · -1.0 24h
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Polymarket · Yes 2%
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 79% · +20.1 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 59% · -4.5 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Polymarket · Democratic Party 86% · +0.5 24h
FL-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Anna Paulina Luna (R) 74% · +9.0 24h
FL-14 House Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Castor (D) 74% · -3.0 24h
PA-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Bob Harvie (D) 66% · +9.0 24h
NV-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · David Flippo (R) 52% · -14.0 24h
AL-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Shomari Figures (D) 55% · +7.0 24h
FL-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Dan Green (R) 62% · -1.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Byron Donalds (R)

Byron Donalds Leads Florida's Governor Race as David Jolly Closes In

Byron Donalds (R): leaning yes (64%)

Democrats are making credible inroads across the 2026 governor map — Ohio and Nevada lean their way, and Florida, once an 83% Republican lock just five days ago, has slipped to a narrower edge, suggesting a national environment that is shifting against Republican incumbency in swing states.

Updated 9:38 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $192K markets read 33 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 48 days range 83% (8d ago) – 64% (1d ago) resolves in 1 day 3 tier changes venues agree
U.S. wide open

The 2028 Democratic Nomination Is a Wide-Open Race With No Clear Favorite

Gavin Newsom: unlikely (17%)

Gavin Newsom leads by a single point over Jon Ossoff in a field where the top three candidates together barely crack half the probability — on the Republican side, J.D. Vance holds the nomination lead but is priced to lose the general, leaving 2028 genuinely up for grabs.

Updated 10:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.2M markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 97 days venues disagree 15.8pp
U.S.

Alito's Retirement Is Now a Coin Flip Through Mid-2027

a coin flip (52%)

Yesterday's near-certainty that he would stay has evaporated — what was "probably not" is now genuinely open, with a volatile market that has swung hard before. A retirement announcement would hand the administration another Court seat and reshape the bench's ideological balance for a generation.

Updated 3:03 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $37K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 92 days range 59% (18d ago) – 28% (85d ago) probably not → a coin flip 4 tier changes