U.S.leaning Yen Bailey

FL-07's Democratic Primary Is a Dead Heat With Yen Bailey Surging

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner”

Yen Bailey: a coin flip (48%)
Leading outcome Yen Bailey 48% A coin flip · D
24h move ▲ 18.0 pts Yen Bailey
Traded 24h $11K $33K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-18 in 2 days

Where the money stands

Yen Bailey 48% ▲ 18.0
Amanda Green 27% ▲ 0.5
Nic Zateslo 7% ▼ 17.6
Brice Barnes 6% ▼ 5.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S. leaning Ken Paxton

Texas's Senate Race Is a Dead Heat Between Ken Paxton and James Talarico

Ken Paxton: a coin flip (51%)

A red state that was once a safe Republican hold is now a genuine toss-up, which means national resources and attention will flood in — and whichever party wins will have made a statement about the new electoral map.

Updated 6:07 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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U.S. wide open

Republicans Are Likely to Lose Their Senate Majority in 2026

50: unlikely (17%)

While the House looks headed for Democratic control at 85%, the Senate is a genuine coin flip — the money's portrait of 2026 is a probable split reversal, with unified Democratic control still only a near-even proposition.

Updated 2:55 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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U.S. leaning Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio's Senate Race Is a Dead Heat, With Brown Holding a Razor-Thin Edge

Sherrod Brown (D): a coin flip (53%)

The broader Senate map tightens the picture: Democrats edge ahead in Ohio and Michigan while Republicans lock up Montana — a landscape where control of the chamber may hinge on a handful of races each sitting within the margin of uncertainty.

Updated 11:42 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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