U.S.

Yen Bailey Now Leads the FL-02 Democratic Primary

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner”

virtually certain (100%)
Resolved The money put Yen Bailey at 66% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Amanda Green 100% Virtually certain · Rising · B · tracked 64 days peak 81% (60d ago) · low 48% (63d ago) unlikely → virtually certain 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 81.0 pts Amanda Green
Traded 24h $20K $78K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-18
The Money Talks — Russia's Capture of Dobropillia Is Very Likely a Matter of When, Not Whether
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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 81 days range 94% (14d ago) – 86% (75d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. wide open

Republicans Likely Lose the Senate in 2026, With Texas the Decisive Battleground

48: unlikely (18%)

What had been a long-shot Democratic Senate takeover is now the clear directional bet — Texas, where Democrats are favored at 61-62%, is the linchpin; if it flips, the map for a Republican majority collapses entirely.

Updated 5:58 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $124K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 68 days range 22% (55d ago) – 15% (1d ago) trending in today's news
U.S. odds favor Pete Ricketts (R)

Pete Ricketts Leads Nebraska's Senate Race but His Edge Has Narrowed

Pete Ricketts (R): leaning yes (74%)

An independent challenger is absorbing enough support to keep this race genuinely competitive — Ricketts holds the advantage, but the contest is no longer comfortably in Republican column, and the independent's staying power makes this one to watch through November.

Updated 9:45 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $20K markets read 16 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 39 days range 74% (16d ago) – 66% (34d ago)