WorldRafael López Aliaga on track to win

Rafael López Aliaga Is Very Likely to Win the Lima Mayoral Election

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Lima Mayoral Election Winner”

Rafael López Aliaga: very likely (95%)
Resolved The money put Rafael López Aliaga at 71% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Rafael López Aliaga 95% Very likely · Rising · C · tracked 37 days peak 97% · low 58% (36d ago) 4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts Rafael López Aliaga
Traded 24h $96K $486K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05 Today

Where the money stands

Rafael López Aliaga 95% ▼ 1.0
Francis James Allison Oyague 4% ▲ 3.0
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 0% ▼ 1.3
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 0% 0.2
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León 0% 0.0
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo 0% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World Flávio Bolsonaro on track to win

Flávio Bolsonaro Is Likely to Win Brazil's Presidency

Flávio Bolsonaro: likely (82%)

The Bolsonaro movement is consolidating around Flávio as its standard-bearer, with Lula's support collapsing in tandem — but three conviction-tier swings in recent weeks warn against reading this as settled; the race has lurched before and could again.

Updated 4:15 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $6.2M markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 68 days range 84% (0d ago) – 50% (22d ago) resolves today trending in today's news 3 tier changes venues disagree 99.0pp
World

Spain Is Virtually Certain to Hold a Snap Election in 2026

virtually certain (100%)

What had been a coin flip is now a virtual certainty — the money has fully priced in early elections, and the related markets sharpen the story: Feijóo is likely the next prime minister, while Sánchez's survival odds have fallen sharply, pointing to a center-right transition before year-end.

Updated 9:55 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $94K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 4 days range 84% (0d ago) – 60% (1d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → virtually certain
World

Iran Has Targeted Iraq

virtually certain (100%)

What was a coin flip is now virtually certain — the ceasefire holding between the US and Iran coexists with Iran striking inside Iraq, suggesting Tehran is using proximate Arab targets as a pressure valve while avoiding direct American confrontation.

Updated 4:15 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $154K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade A leaning yes → virtually certain