World

Iran Has Targeted Iraq

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (100%)

Leading outcome September 30 100% Virtually certain · A a coin flip → virtually certain

24h move ▲ 52.9 pts September 30

Traded 24h $155K $179K all time

Resolves by 2026-10-31

Source markets for this story

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 72% · +2.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 5 99% · +0.9 24h

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 16% · -1.0 24h

Will Iran target Iraq by...? Polymarket · September 30 100% · +52.9 24h

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Polymarket · Yes 4% · -6.0 24h

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? Polymarket · November 30 78% · -5.5 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h

Will Iran target an Arab country by...? Polymarket · September 30 100% · +63.4 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 70% · -1.0 24h

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) Kalshi · Above 10 99% · +1.0 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12% · -1.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 8% · -1.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 3%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 32% · -10.0 24h

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Jared Kushner 50% · +1.0 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? Polymarket · December 31 18% · -1.0 24h