U.S.

Hegseth's Survival Is the Narrow Favorite, but the Cabinet Is Unsettled

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”

probably not (42%)
Leading outcome Pete Hegseth 42% Probably not · Falling · A · tracked 86 days peak 100% (85d ago) · low 38% (84d ago) leaning yes → probably not 3 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 19.5pp
24h move ▼ 3.5 pts Pete Hegseth
Traded 24h $170K $1.7M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 7 7 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Pete Hegseth 42% ▼ 3.5
Susie Wiles 42% ▼ 7.0
Kristi Noem 27% 0.1
Markwayne Mullin 22% ▼ 2.0
Stephen Miller 20% ▼ 2.0
Tom Homan 20% ▲ 2.0

Source markets for this story

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi · Ric Grenell 56% · +4.0 24h
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4%
Will the House impeach Trump? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2028 65% · -7.0 24h
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Polymarket · Pete Hegseth 42% · -3.5 24h
Trump's approval rating on Nov 6, 2026? Kalshi · Above 39.0 72% · +27.0 24h
Will Trump be impeached by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 57% · -1.0 24h
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Polymarket · Yes 1% · -0.8 24h
The Money Talks — Karoline Leavitt's Time at the Podium Is Over
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Alito Will Likely Stay on the Bench Through Mid-2027

unlikely (20%)

What had been a "probably not" has fallen to unlikely after a 19-point collapse from a peak set just 20 days ago — the brief window in which a Trump-era retirement seemed plausible has apparently closed, leaving the Court's composition likely unchanged through the period markets can see.

Updated 2:10 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $150K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 94 days range 59% (20d ago) – 28% (87d ago) trending in today's news probably not → unlikely 6 tier changes
U.S. one clear front-runner

Vance Leads a Fractured 2028 Republican Field After a Sharp Surge

J.D. Vance: probably not (38%)

Recovering from a low set today, Vance's plurality is real but far from commanding — with Rubio at 22% and DeSantis at 11%, the nomination remains wide open, and a market that has crossed conviction rungs four times in its history counsels against reading today's bounce as a coronation.

Updated 4:08 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.7M markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 99 days range 53% (63d ago) – 31% (0d ago) 4 tier changes venues disagree 22.1pp
U.S. Democratic party on track to win

Mary Peltola Is Very Likely to Win Alaska's Senate Race

Democratic party: very likely (95%)

Having climbed from a coin-flip just 80 days ago, Peltola's position is now a 96–97% call across related markets — but the conviction-rung slip from virtually certain to very likely today is a small caution flag in a market that has crossed rungs eight times. Alaska is no longer competitive; it is a question of how commanding the margin will be.

Updated 5:46 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $6.6M markets read 3 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 81 days range 93% (0d ago) – 51% (80d ago) virtually certain → very likely 8 tier changes venues agree