World

The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds, but a Durable Settlement Looks Far Off

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?”

virtually certain (100%)
Resolved The money put August 31 at 96% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome November 1 100% Virtually certain · Stable · A · tracked 97 days peak 100% (1d ago) · low 79% (33d ago) 21 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 20.0pp
24h move 0.2 pts November 1
Traded 24h $703K $43.5M all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
Source markets 22 22 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

November 1 100% 0.2
November 2 99% ▲ 1.3
November 3 96% ▼ 0.7
November 4 94% ▼ 1.0
November 5 90% ▼ 3.0
November 6 86% ▼ 2.0

Source markets for this story

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 31 75% · -23.8 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 62% · -1.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · November 1 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 18%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 46% · +6.5 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 40% · +7.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 61% · -1.0 24h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket · December 31 8% · +4.2 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 27% · +0.5 24h
Iran coup attempt by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 22% · -4.5 24h
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 85% · -0.6 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 5% · -1.9 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Dilution of Iran's Uranium 16%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4% · +1.4 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 36% · -2.5 24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket · December 31 4% · +1.2 24h
The Money Talks — The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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