U.S.Mark Keough on track to win

Mark Keough Is Very Likely to Win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “2026 Montgomery County Judge Election Winner”

Mark Keough: very likely (94%)
Resolved The money put Mark Keough at 94% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Mark Keough 94% Very likely · D
24h move 0.1 pts Mark Keough
Traded 24h $14K $48K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04

Where the money stands

Mark Keough 94% 0.1
James Graf 3% ▼ 0.9
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 18 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 69 days range 94% (2d ago) – 86% (63d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 27.4pp
U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Race at Just 21%

JD Vance: unlikely (21%)

No candidate commands real authority in this field: Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that to only a 21% general-election share, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff crowd the Democratic lane — a genuinely fragmented race with no prohibitive favorite on either side.

Updated 6:42 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $862K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 69 days range 25% (33d ago) – 20% (66d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 31.2pp
U.S. odds favor Aaron Ford (D)

Nevada's Governor Race Is a Dead Heat

Aaron Ford (D): a coin flip (52%)

Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo are separated by a whisker, and the race has swung dramatically over the past month — whoever wins will do so on the narrowest of margins.

Updated 9:23 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $60K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 37 days range 60% (27d ago) – 48% (20d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes 2 tier changes