World

Iran Is Unlikely to Impose Hormuz Fees This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?”

unlikely (22%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 42% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 22% Unlikely · Stable · B · tracked 58 days peak 65% (54d ago) · low 22% probably not → unlikely 15 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $16K $3.2M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 12 12 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

December 31 22% 0.0
October 31 9% ▼ 3.5
September 30 2% ▼ 0.9

Source markets for this story

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 20% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 20% · -1.0 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 73% · -1.0 24h
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? Polymarket · September 21 99% · +5.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? Polymarket · October 31 72% · +6.2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 7% · +1.5 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · September 30 4%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 28% · -5.0 24h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? Polymarket · December 31 22%
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? Polymarket · No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 81% · +2.0 24h
The Money Talks — Don't Wait for Hormuz to Heal by Fall — It Won't
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Hormuz Disruption Is Locked In Through September — and Likely Well Beyond

virtually impossible (0%)

The ceasefire is holding but the strait is not recovering: ceasefires with both Iran and Israel price above 95%, yet normal traffic through October sits at just 8%, telling a story of a conflict frozen in place rather than resolved. A pipeline restart wobbling at 75% underscores how fragile the workarounds remain.

Updated 3:54 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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Iran's Regime Is Virtually Certain to Survive Through September

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Regime collapse before autumn is not a serious scenario — it is a near-statistical impossibility, leaving any opposition or external pressure campaign with no credible short-term horizon for systemic change.

Updated 12:53 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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Pakistan Is Likely to Strike Afghanistan Before October 31

likely (84%)

What had been a leaning-yes proposition is now a likely one — the money has crossed a conviction threshold, signaling that bettors see a concrete trigger approaching, not a distant contingency. A cross-border military operation now looks like the base case, not a tail risk.

Updated 6:40 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $48K venue Polymarket grade D trending in today's news leaning yes → likely