A Formal US-Iran Nuclear Deal This Year Remains a Long Shot
Source: Polymarket market “What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”
unlikely (18%)
Leading outcome
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) 18%
Unlikely · Falling · A · tracked 51 days
peak 38% (49d ago) · low 10% (16d ago)
very unlikely → unlikely
7 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▲
9.0 pts
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
Traded 24h
$42K
$946K all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Source markets
21
21 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
18%
▲
9.0
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
16%
▲
8.0
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
16%
▲
3.0
Iran Reconstruction Funding
15%
▼
0.5
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
12%
0.0
Enriched Uranium Surrender
4%
0.0
Source markets for this story
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · September 25 92% · +7.5 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · December 31 62% · +2.6 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · September 30 94% · +2.0 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 20% · +3.0 24h
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 89% · +1.1 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 36% · +3.0 24h
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Polymarket · March 31, 2027 62%
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 36% · -0.5 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 12% · +1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 1%
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · +1.0 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket · ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) 18% · +9.0 24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Polymarket · December 31 4% · -0.9 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20)
Kalshi · Above 10 98% · -1.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · October 31 34% · +3.5 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 28% · -3.5 24h
Saudi airspace closed by...?
Polymarket · December 31 22% · -4.5 24h
The Money Talks —
The US-Iran Ceasefire Very Likely Holds Through September 20 — But Don't Get Comfortable
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