The Fed Is Now Expected to Hike Twice This Year
Source: Polymarket market “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?”
2 (50 bps): leaning yes (70%)
Leading outcome
2 (50 bps) 70%
Leaning yes · Rising · C · tracked 94 days
peak 82% (3d ago) · low 38% (57d ago)
12 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▼
4.5 pts
2 (50 bps)
Traded 24h
$45K
$1.4M all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Where the money stands
2 (50 bps)
70%
▼
4.5
1 (25 bps)
28%
▲
3.0
3 (75 bps)
0%
0.0
4 (100 bps)
0%
0.0
5+ (125+ bps)
0%
0.0
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