The Fed Holds All Year — or Hikes Twice: A Coin-Flip Split
Source: Polymarket market “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?”
0 (0 bps): a coin flip (50%)
Leading outcome
0 (0 bps) 50%
A coin flip · Rising · A
24h move
▲
3.0 pts
0 (0 bps)
Traded 24h
$25K
$188K all time
Resolves by
2026-12-31
Source markets
6
6 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
0 (0 bps)
50%
▲
3.0
1 (25 bps)
26%
▼
8.5
2 (50 bps)
20%
▲
6.0
3 (75 bps)
3%
▲
0.7
4 (100 bps)
0%
0.2
5+ (125+ bps)
0%
▼
0.7
Source markets for this story
Fed Decision in September?
Polymarket · No change 74% · -1.0 24h
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate 73%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 85%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 46% · -3.0 24h
Fed Decision in October?
Polymarket · No change 72%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 50% · +3.0 24h
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