U.S.Kathy Hochul (D) on track to win

Kathy Hochul Is Very Likely to Win the New York Governor's Race in 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “New York Governor Election Winner”

Kathy Hochul (D): very likely (96%)
Leading outcome Kathy Hochul (D) 96% Very likely · A venues agree
24h move 0.0 pts Kathy Hochul (D)
Traded 24h $35K $162K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 6 6 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Kathy Hochul (D) 96% 0.0
Bruce Blakeman (R) 4% ▼ 0.5

Source markets for this story

Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi · Nithya Raman 61%
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 74% · -4.0 24h
New York Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 96%
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 96%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket · Nithya Raman 60% · -2.9 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 92% · +4.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 24 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 67 days range 94% (0d ago) – 86% (61d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 27.4pp
U.S. wide open

The 2028 Democratic Presidential Race Has No Front-Runner

Gavin Newsom: unlikely (17%)

Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez share a statistical tie at the top of a fractured field, with Jon Ossoff close behind — meaning the party's next standard-bearer is genuinely undecided, and on the Republican side, JD Vance holds only a coin-flip grip on his own nomination.

Updated 12:53 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $702K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 67 days range 23% (41d ago) – 17% (2d ago) venues disagree 31.2pp
U.S. Katie Hobbs (D) on track to win

Katie Hobbs Is Very Likely to Hold Arizona's Governorship in 2026

Katie Hobbs (D): very likely (92%)

What had been a likely Democratic hold is now very likely — a confidence-tier shift that signals Arizona's executive office is increasingly out of reach for Republicans, even as Andy Biggs's candidacy draws public attention.

Updated 4:54 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $15K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 60 days range 92% (0d ago) – 84% (58d ago) trending in today's news likely → very likely venues agree