World

Russia Is Unlikely to Capture Lyman Before End of 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Russia capture Lyman by...?”

very unlikely (6%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 24% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 6% Very unlikely · Stable · D · tracked 47 days peak 39% (38d ago) · low 4% (4d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 0.5 pts December 31
Traded 24h $14K $3.1M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 6% ▼ 0.5
September 30 1% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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A U.S. Invasion of Iran Before 2027 Remains Unlikely

unlikely (16%)

Despite sustained geopolitical tension, the money is not pricing a ground war — at 16%, invasion sits in tail-risk territory, suggesting that whatever escalation is underway, troops-on-the-ground is still seen as a political bridge too far.

Updated 2:58 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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Saudi Pipeline Restart Is Leaning Toward October — but the Window Is Narrowing

leaning yes (68%)

What had looked likely just days ago has slipped to a lean: the confidence that the East-West pipeline returns before October 31 has eroded sharply, and a market that has swung across conviction tiers six times offers no settled answer. Earlier deadlines — September 30, October 15 — are now heavily discounted, concentrating whatever optimism remains at the very end of the window.

Updated 6:37 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $95K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 15 days range 89% (3d ago) – 46% (10d ago) likely → leaning yes 6 tier changes
World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Gadi Eizenkot Holds a Razor-Thin Lead in Israel's Next Prime Minister Race

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (51%)

A 51-49 split is effectively a toss-up, and Netanyahu's 30% and Bennett's surging 14% mean the field is far from settled — anyone positioning on a single outcome is taking on real risk. The next Israeli government remains genuinely open, with no candidate commanding anything close to a mandate.

Updated 12:57 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $176K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 59 days range 58% (33d ago) – 47% (21d ago) trending in today's news 6 tier changes