World

Iran Will Very Likely Not Hand Enriched Uranium to the US This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?”

very unlikely (8%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 8% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 8% Very unlikely · Stable · D · tracked 46 days peak 10% (41d ago) · low 4% (7d ago)
24h move ▲ 2.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $14K $29.3M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 8% ▲ 2.0
September 30 1% 0.1
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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An Iran-Oman Hormuz Deal Is Now Leaning Toward Completion by October

leaning yes (58%)

Ceasefires on the Israel-Iran and Israel-Lebanon fronts are holding with very high confidence, creating the diplomatic breathing room Muscat needs to broker a formal arrangement — but with Hormuz traffic still deeply depressed and normalization priced below 20% by year-end, any deal will be a management agreement, not a resolution.

Updated 6:55 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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World all but decided

Sweden Democrats Are Likely to Finish Second in the 2026 Parliamentary Election

Sweden Democrats (SD): likely (80%)

The race for second place is essentially a two-horse contest between SD and the Moderates, and the money has settled firmly on SD — a result that would cement the far right as the permanent runner-up force in Swedish politics.

Updated 4:27 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $12K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 12 days range 84% (3d ago) – 75% (11d ago) resolves today
World Sweden Democrats (SD) on track to win

Sweden's Moderates Are Likely to Finish Third, but the Democrats Are Closing

Moderate Party (M): likely (78%)

A surging Sweden Democrats challenge means the third-place finish is no longer a formality for the Moderates — if the trend holds, it reshapes the right-of-center coalition arithmetic heading into the September election.

Updated 11:32 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $14K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 35 days range 82% (3d ago) – 76% (0d ago) resolves today