U.S.all but decided

MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner”

Stephen Lynch: virtually certain (98%)
Resolved The money put Stephen Lynch at 80% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Stephen Lynch 98% Virtually certain · Rising · A · tracked 56 days peak 82% (48d ago) · low 50% (55d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 26.5pp
24h move ▲ 18.9 pts Stephen Lynch
Traded 24h $110K $239K all time
Resolves by 2026-09-01
Source markets 27 27 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Stephen Lynch 98% ▲ 18.9
Patrick Roath 1% ▼ 19.1
Andrew Zylberfink 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62%
Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 62%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 69% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 66% · +1.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 85% · -2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 83% · -2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 37% · +3.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 87% · -3.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 63% · +1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 59% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70% · -2.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 48% · +2.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 26% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 75% · -1.5 24h
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 91% · -0.9 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 96% · -3.0 24h
TX-06 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jake Ellzey (R) 99% · +4.3 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% · +0.8 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 66%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 96%
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 59% · -1.5 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 40% · +0.5 24h
The Money Talks — The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S. one clear front-runner

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep Congress in the Midterms

Above 52: probably not (36%)

While coverage focuses on individual Senate battlegrounds, the fuller picture is a coordinated Democratic wave: a House flip is very likely, Senate control leans Democratic, and Texas — both its House seat and its Senate race — is tilting blue. The Senate seat-count outcome above 52 remains the soft underbelly of that thesis.

Updated 12:47 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $65K markets read 27 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 68 days range 37% (10d ago) – 20% (63d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. wide open

Republicans Likely Lose the Senate in 2026, With Texas the Decisive Battleground

48: unlikely (18%)

What had been a long-shot Democratic Senate takeover is now the clear directional bet — Texas, where Democrats are favored at 61-62%, is the linchpin; if it flips, the map for a Republican majority collapses entirely.

Updated 5:58 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $124K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 68 days range 22% (55d ago) – 15% (1d ago) trending in today's news
U.S. wide open

The 2028 Democratic Nomination Race Has No Clear Front-Runner

Gavin Newsom: unlikely (14%)

With Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, and Ossoff each sitting around 14%, the Democratic Party faces the most wide-open nominating contest in a generation — and on the Republican side, Vance's path to the nomination remains contested enough that the general election is anyone's game.

Updated 1:20 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $877K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 81 days venues disagree 28.1pp