U.S.

Trump Declares No Election-Interference Emergency This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?”

unlikely (22%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 30% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 22% Unlikely · Falling · C · tracked 6 days peak 30% (5d ago) · low 16% (2d ago)
24h move ▲ 3.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $73K $413K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S.

The US-Iran Ceasefire Holds — But the Peace Is Fragile and Unresolved

likely (88%)

A ceasefire holding through October is the floor, not the ceiling — with Hormuz traffic still strangled, a formal agreement nowhere near certain, and diplomacy only tentatively resuming, this is a frozen conflict, not a settled one.

Updated 4:31 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
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U.S. wide open

JD Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field at a Thin 19%

JD Vance: unlikely (19%)

A plurality this slim is a statement of disorder, not dominance — Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that into only a 19% general-election chance, while Marco Rubio's quiet rise and a fractured Democratic field mean 2028 has no front-runner in any meaningful sense.

Updated 8:53 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $244K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 97 days range 25% (61d ago) – 17% (4d ago) venues disagree 19.4pp
U.S. odds favor Byron Donalds (R)

Byron Donalds Leads Florida's Governor Race as David Jolly Closes In

Byron Donalds (R): leaning yes (64%)

Democrats are making credible inroads across the 2026 governor map — Ohio and Nevada lean their way, and Florida, once an 83% Republican lock just five days ago, has slipped to a narrower edge, suggesting a national environment that is shifting against Republican incumbency in swing states.

Updated 9:38 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $192K markets read 30 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 48 days range 83% (8d ago) – 64% (1d ago) resolves in 1 day trending in today's news 3 tier changes venues agree