U.S.odds favor Greg Murphy (R)

Greg Murphy Leads NC-03 but Democrats Have Narrowed the Gap

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “NC-03 House Election Winner”

Greg Murphy (R): leaning yes (64%)
Leading outcome Greg Murphy (R) 64% Leaning yes · B venues disagree 11.8pp
24h move ▲ 5.0 pts Greg Murphy (R)
Traded 24h $23K $71K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 69 69 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Greg Murphy (R) 64% ▲ 5.0
Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 36% ▲ 2.0

Source markets for this story

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 64%
Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 91%
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 66% · +1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 66%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 64%
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 67% · -2.0 24h
Ohio Governor winner? Kalshi · Amy Acton 78% · -4.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 69% · +3.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 68% · +3.0 24h
Nevada Governor winner? Kalshi · Aaron Ford 77% · +7.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 77%
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 48 16% · -1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 62% · +2.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 37% · -2.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 85% · +1.0 24h
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi · Byron Donalds 79% · -3.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 66% · +1.0 24h
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Moody 89% · -1.3 24h
New York Attorney General winner? Kalshi · Letitia James 94% · +1.5 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 63% · +4.0 24h
New York Governor winner? Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 94%
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 89%
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 85% · +2.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 73% · -2.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 65% · -4.2 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 68%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 68% · +0.5 24h
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 65% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 69% · +3.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 60%
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 51% · +3.0 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 92% · +1.0 24h
NC-13 House winner? Kalshi · Brad Knott 66% · -3.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 59% · +1.0 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 80% · +10.5 24h
Georgia Governor winner? Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms 62%
Florida Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) 80% · -3.0 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Polymarket · Yes 97% · -0.7 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi · Nithya Raman 56% · +1.0 24h
Texas Governor-Senate combo Kalshi · Greg Abbott and James Talarico win 39% · -3.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 71% · -4.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 64% · -0.7 24h
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? Polymarket · December 31 30% · -2.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 94% · +1.4 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 87% · +0.5 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 60% · -2.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 64% · +2.0 24h
NJ-02 House winner? Kalshi · Jeff Van Drew 71% · -5.0 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 95% · +4.4 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 70% · +2.5 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 27% · +2.0 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jeff Van Drew (R) 70% · -4.5 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 90%
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi · Rob Sand 84% · +1.0 24h
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? Polymarket · Thom Tillis 10%
Ohio Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 80% · -3.0 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 65% · -1.8 24h
AZ-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Amish Shah (D) 80% · -2.5 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brad Knott (R) 65% · -1.5 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket · Nithya Raman 54% · -1.5 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 42% · +1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 63% · -1.0 24h
Vermont Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Phil Scott (R) 76% · +1.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 80% · +1.5 24h
Georgia Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
NC-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Murphy (R) 64% · +5.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 0-3% 33%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 58% · +1.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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