Democrats Are Very Likely to Flip CA-04, Tilting the House Map Further Blue
Source: Polymarket market “CA-04 House Election Winner”
Democratic Party: very likely (97%)
Leading outcome
Democratic Party 97%
Very likely · B
likely → very likely
venues disagree 26.5pp
24h move
▲
17.0 pts
Democratic Party
Traded 24h
$22K
$45K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-04
Source markets
38
38 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Democratic Party
97%
▲
17.0
Republican Party
1%
▼
7.9
Source markets for this story
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 62%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 18% · +3.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 68%
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 85% · -2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 82% · -3.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 63% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 37% · +3.0 24h
Nevada Governor winner?
Kalshi · Aaron Ford 55% · +1.0 24h
New York Governor winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 94%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 59% · +2.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 66% · +1.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · -1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 26%
California Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 96%
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 65%
Massachusetts Governor winner?
Kalshi · Maura Healey 94% · -1.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 49% · +3.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 79% · +2.6 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · -0.9 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 54% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 59% · +1.0 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 57% · +3.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
Nebraska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 73% · -1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 59% · -0.9 24h
NC-11 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jamie Ager (D) 79% · +2.5 24h
TX-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jake Ellzey (R) 99% · +4.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 72% · -1.0 24h
CA-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Democratic Party 97% · +17.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 64% · +1.0 24h
KS-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Ron Estes (R) 95% · +0.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 96% · -0.5 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 68% · +2.0 24h
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