World

The U.S. Will Not Invade Cuba in 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?”

very unlikely (6%)
Leading outcome Yes 6% Very unlikely · D · tracked 30 days
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $15K $3.3M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World

An Iran-Oman Hormuz Deal Is Now Leaning Toward Completion by October

leaning yes (58%)

Ceasefires on the Israel-Iran and Israel-Lebanon fronts are holding with very high confidence, creating the diplomatic breathing room Muscat needs to broker a formal arrangement — but with Hormuz traffic still deeply depressed and normalization priced below 20% by year-end, any deal will be a management agreement, not a resolution.

Updated 6:55 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $235K markets read 21 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 38 days range 90% (37d ago) – 26% (8d ago) a coin flip → leaning yes 12 tier changes
World leaning Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil's Presidential Race Is a Dead Heat

Flávio Bolsonaro: a coin flip (50%)

What had been leaning toward Flávio Bolsonaro is now a coin flip, with Lula closing to within two points — the race is genuinely open, and the direction of momentum now favors the incumbent's camp.

Updated 7:38 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $995K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 45 days range 66% (41d ago) – 51% (1d ago) venues disagree 4.5pp
World odds favor Magdalena Andersson

Andersson Still Leads Sweden's PM Race, but Her Grip Is Slipping

Magdalena Andersson: leaning yes (72%)

What had been a likely outcome is now merely leaning her way — Kristersson has doubled his implied probability in 24 hours, and with the Social Democrats still near-certain to win the most seats, the real question is whether a coalition can be assembled around someone other than Andersson.

Updated 4:24 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $415K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 44 days range 93% (19d ago) – 74% (0d ago) resolves in 1 day 3 tier changes