U.S.0 on track to win

Every Democratic Senate Incumbent Is Likely to Survive Their Primary

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?”

0: very likely (96%)
Resolved The money put 0 at 96% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 0 96% Very likely · D · tracked 63 days likely → very likely
24h move ▲ 17.0 pts 0
Traded 24h $14K $28K all time
Resolves by —

Where the money stands

0 96% ▲ 17.0
1 4% ▼ 9.4
2 1% ▼ 2.5
3 0% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. one clear front-runner

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep Congress in the Midterms

Above 52: probably not (36%)

While coverage focuses on individual Senate battlegrounds, the fuller picture is a coordinated Democratic wave: a House flip is very likely, Senate control leans Democratic, and Texas — both its House seat and its Senate race — is tilting blue. The Senate seat-count outcome above 52 remains the soft underbelly of that thesis.

Updated 12:47 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $65K markets read 27 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 68 days range 37% (10d ago) – 20% (63d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. wide open

Republicans Likely Lose the Senate in 2026, With Texas the Decisive Battleground

48: unlikely (18%)

What had been a long-shot Democratic Senate takeover is now the clear directional bet — Texas, where Democrats are favored at 61-62%, is the linchpin; if it flips, the map for a Republican majority collapses entirely.

Updated 5:58 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $124K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 68 days range 22% (55d ago) – 15% (1d ago) trending in today's news
U.S. wide open

The 2028 Democratic Nomination Race Has No Clear Front-Runner

Gavin Newsom: unlikely (14%)

With Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, and Ossoff each sitting around 14%, the Democratic Party faces the most wide-open nominating contest in a generation — and on the Republican side, Vance's path to the nomination remains contested enough that the general election is anyone's game.

Updated 1:20 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $877K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 81 days venues disagree 28.1pp