U.S.leaning Ben Butler

FL-09 Republican Primary Is Now a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “FL-09 Republican Primary Winner”

Ben Butler: a coin flip (49%)
Leading outcome Ben Butler 49% A coin flip · D
24h move ▼ 3.1 pts Ben Butler
Traded 24h $14K $80K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-18 in 5 days

Where the money stands

Ben Butler 49% ▼ 3.1
Thomas Chalifoux 28% ▲ 5.0
Dan Green 12% ▲ 2.0
Jorge Martinez 6% ▲ 1.8
Justin Story 0% 0.2
Marcus Carter 0% 0.1
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virtually certain (100%)

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Democrats Are Likely to Retake the House — but the Senate Stays Republican

Democratic Party: likely (85%)

A split Congress is the most probable outcome of the midterms, meaning legislative gridlock rather than a Democratic governing trifecta — the House flip, if it comes, changes the oversight landscape far more than the policy one.

Updated 10:45 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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