World

The Iranian Regime Will Not Fall by October 31

By Priced In News Staff

virtually impossible (0%)

Leading outcome Yes 0% Virtually impossible · Stable · A · tracked 15 days

24h move 0.2 pts Yes

Traded 24h $23K $211K all time

Resolves by 2026-11-01

Source markets for this story

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 22 95% · -1.1 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 21 99%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 55% · -1.5 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 87% · +0.7 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 72% · -8.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6% · +1.0 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8% · +1.0 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 24% · -1.0 24h

Iran coup attempt by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 28%

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Jared Kushner 34% · -1.0 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 61% · +5.0 24h

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 41% · +11.5 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 30% · -2.0 24h

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...? Polymarket · December 31 14% · -4.5 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 32%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 0%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket · December 31 4%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12%