U.S.Emanuel Cleaver (D) on track to win

Democrats Are Likely to Hold Missouri's Fifth Congressional District

By Priced In News Staff

Emanuel Cleaver (D): very likely (91%)

Leading outcome Emanuel Cleaver (D) 91% Very likely · B likely → very likely venues disagree 29.3pp

24h move ▼ 3.0 pts Emanuel Cleaver (D)

Traded 24h $16K $48K all time

Resolves by 2026-11-04

Where the money stands

Emanuel Cleaver (D) 91% ▼ 3.0

Rick Brattin (R) 9% ▲ 3.9

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 61% · +2.0 24h

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 91%

Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 62% · +5.0 24h

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 64% · +3.0 24h

Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 60% · +6.0 24h

Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 59%

Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 61% · +1.0 24h

Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 64% · +3.0 24h

Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 71% · -3.0 24h

Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92%

Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 74% · -0.5 24h

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 193 29% · -1.0 24h

Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 48% · +1.0 24h

Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 57% · -3.0 24h

Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 74%

South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 86%

Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 60% · +1.0 24h

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 35% · -2.0 24h

Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 67% · +2.0 24h

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) 82% · +2.0 24h

Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 70%

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 36% · -3.0 24h

MO-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · Emanuel Cleaver (D) 91% · -3.0 24h

TN-04 House Election Winner Polymarket · Scott DesJarlais (R) 94% · +2.0 24h

Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 68% · +0.5 24h