Curiositiesall but decided

Trump and Xi Will Exchange a Brief, Conventional Handshake

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?”

2–6s: virtually certain (100%)
Resolved The money put 15s+ at 41% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 2–6s 100% Virtually certain · Rising · C · tracked 52 days peak 99% (48d ago) · low 32% (50d ago) leaning yes → virtually certain 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 28.3 pts 2–6s
Traded 24h $49K $144K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-08

Where the money stands

2–6s 100% ▲ 28.3
6–10s 0% ▼ 20.9
10–15s 0% ▼ 7.0
15s+ 0% ▼ 3.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Curiosities

Curiosities

The U.S. Is Very Unlikely to Confirm Alien Life Before 2027

very unlikely (3%)

Whatever is driving public curiosity about disclosure right now, the money is deeply unmoved — nearly $71 million staked here says official confirmation before 2027 is a near-certainty not to happen, treating the whole conversation as noise rather than signal.

Updated 3:52 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $31K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 107 days
Curiosities

Jesus Christ Will Not Return Before 2027

virtually impossible (2%)

Sixty-five million dollars staked on the Second Coming — at 2% — says more about human anxiety than theology; the money is nearly unanimous, but the fact that tens of thousands of dollars flow through this market at all reveals an itch that no amount of rationalism fully scratches.

Updated 8:18 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $13K venue Polymarket grade B tracked 106 days trending in today's news
Curiosities odds favor 8

China Is on Track for Eight Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in 2026

8: leaning yes (64%)

What had been a likely call is now leaning yes — a volatile market that has crossed conviction rungs six times signals real uncertainty, and the shift of probability toward 'greater than eight' suggests some money now sees an even busier storm season ahead.

Updated 1:38 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $20K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 67 days range 80% (66d ago) – 40% (47d ago) trending in today's news very likely → leaning yes 6 tier changes