Israeli Airspace Is Likely to Stay Open Through Year-End
Source: Polymarket market “Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)”
unlikely (19%)
Leading outcome
December 31 19%
Unlikely · Falling · B · tracked 22 days
peak 24% (21d ago) · low 16% (1d ago)
venues disagree 82.8pp
24h move
▲
3.5 pts
December 31
Traded 24h
$36K
$298K all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Source markets
20
20 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
December 31
19%
▲
3.5
October 31
6%
▲
2.0
Source markets for this story
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · March 31 72%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 5 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16% · +1.0 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Polymarket · Yes 2%
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 88%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
Kalshi · Above 10 95% · -2.0 24h
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Polymarket · Yes 10% · +1.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 9 97%
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
Polymarket · 20-24 0% · -24.4 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 12%
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
Polymarket · December 31 19% · +3.5 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 38% · +5.5 24h
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Polymarket · September 21 91%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2026 46%
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 24% · +3.5 24h
The Money Talks —
The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
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