A Houthi March Into Aden Is Unlikely This Year
Source: Polymarket market “Houthis enter Aden by...?”
probably not (28%)
Leading outcome
December 31 28%
Probably not · Rising · B · tracked 27 days
peak 36% (23d ago) · low 23% (14d ago)
5 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▼
0.5 pts
December 31
Traded 24h
$28K
$466K all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Source markets
4
3/4 markets agree
Where the money stands
December 31
28%
▼
0.5
October 31
12%
▼
2.5
Source markets for this story
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Polymarket · December 31 16% · -1.0 24h
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
Polymarket · October 4 95% · +2.1 24h
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 28% · -3.5 24h
Houthis enter Aden by...?
Polymarket · December 31 28% · -0.5 24h
Get an alert when Houthi Red Sea moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.