Republican Senate Seat Count Is Wide Open After the Midterms
Source: Kalshi market “How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?”
48: unlikely (17%)
Leading outcome
48 17%
Unlikely · Stable · A · tracked 57 days
peak 22% (44d ago) · low 15% (4d ago)
24h move
▼
2.0 pts
48
Traded 24h
$87K
$1.8M all time
Resolves by
2027-02-01
Source markets
40
40 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
48
17%
▼
2.0
47
16%
0.0
49
15%
0.0
50
13%
▲
1.0
46
11%
▲
1.0
Below 45
8%
▼
1.0
Source markets for this story
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 64% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90% · -1.1 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 92% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 67%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 64% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 64% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 71% · -2.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 73% · +2.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 57% · +1.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 59%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 37%
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 95%
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 55%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Polymarket · Nithya Raman 58%
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 63% · -1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 17% · -2.0 24h
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 73% · +2.0 24h
Florida Governor winner?
Kalshi · Byron Donalds 78% · +2.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 86%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Polymarket · Yes 98% · +0.5 24h
Iowa Governor winner?
Kalshi · Rob Sand 89%
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 80% · +2.3 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner?
Kalshi · Chris Pappas 88% · -1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 29%
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Polymarket · Chiang Wan-an 74% · +1.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 86%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 72%
Tennessee Senate winner?
Kalshi · Bill Hagerty 92% · -1.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 63% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Governor winner?
Kalshi · Amy Acton 66% · -1.0 24h
Vermont Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Phil Scott (R) 74% · -3.0 24h
NC-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Valerie Foushee (D) 97% · +0.5 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 84%
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 55% · -3.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 62%
Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?
Polymarket · ↓ 7% 53% · -26.1 24h
Georgia Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Rick Jackson (R) 50%
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola 74%
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 86% · -3.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90%
Get an alert when Us Midterms 2026 moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.