U.S.

A US-Iran Nuclear Deal Is Now a Coin Flip — and Could Come Sooner Than Expected

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “US-Iran nuclear deal?”

probably not (43%)
Leading outcome Before Jan 20, 2029 43% Probably not · Stable · A · tracked 108 days peak 66% (94d ago) · low 29% (63d ago) 10 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts Before Jan 20, 2029
Traded 24h $59K $3.4M all time
Resolves by 2029-01-20
Source markets 18 18 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Before Jan 20, 2029 43% ▼ 1.0
Before Jan 1, 2028 33% ▲ 1.0
Before Oct 1, 2027 31% ▲ 9.0
Before Jul 1, 2027 28% ▲ 5.0
Before Mar 1, 2027 14% ▲ 1.0
Before Feb 1, 2027 11% ▲ 1.0

Source markets for this story

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · November 13 100% · +0.6 24h
What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop? Kalshi · Specific cause confirmed 98%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 55% · -4.0 24h
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · December 31 82% · +1.5 24h
FAA outage attributed to Iran? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 6%
FAA outage attributed to hack? Polymarket · Yes 5%
US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 43% · -1.0 24h
FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor? Polymarket · Yes 3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 8%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) Kalshi · Above 15 91% · -4.0 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 22% · -0.5 24h
What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop? Polymarket · Equipment or system failure 89%
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -3.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 22% · -2.5 24h
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22% · +2.0 24h
Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027? Polymarket · Jordan 56%
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Dilution of Iran's Uranium 10% · +1.0 24h
The Money Talks — Talks Will Probably Happen — But the Window Is Narrowing Fast
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S.

Howard Lutnick's Departure From the Cabinet Is Now a Dead Heat

a coin flip (52%)

What was considered unlikely just two days ago is now a genuine 50-50 — a dramatic repricing that stops short of a verdict but signals something has broken in Lutnick's standing, even as most other cabinet seats remain stable.

Updated 10:27 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $69K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 95 days range 100% (94d ago) – 24% (3d ago) trending in today's news unlikely → probably not 6 tier changes venues disagree 15.0pp
U.S. one clear front-runner

Jon Ossoff Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field

Jon Ossoff: unlikely (24%)

His edge is thin and slipping — what had been a 'probably not' read is now 'unlikely' territory after a further dip, and a market asking whether someone else leads by November is already at 61%. The nomination is genuinely anyone's race, with Ossoff's lead reflecting name recognition and Senate profile rather than consolidating strength.

Updated 9:50 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $6.3M markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 108 days range 26% (0d ago) – 14% (26d ago) 7 tier changes venues disagree 25.8pp
U.S.

Mary Peltola Is All but Certain to Win Alaska's Senate Race

virtually certain (99%)

Democrats are on track to flip the Senate: Peltola's victory is treated as a foregone conclusion, and the broader picture shows Republicans very likely losing a string of contested seats while Chuck Schumer is poised to return as Majority Leader.

Updated 8:34 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $106K markets read 7 venue Kalshi grade A 2 tier changes venues agree