U.S.

US-Iran nuclear deal?

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “US-Iran nuclear deal?”

probably not (29%)
Leading outcome Before Jan 20, 2029 29% Probably not · Stable · A · tracked 47 days peak 66% (33d ago) · low 29% (2d ago) 8 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.0 pts Before Jan 20, 2029
Traded 24h $34K $3.1M all time
Resolves by 2029-01-20
Source markets 20 20 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Before Jan 20, 2029 29% 0.0
Before Jan 1, 2028 21% ▲ 1.0
Before Mar 1, 2027 12% ▼ 1.0
Before Feb 1, 2027 9% ▼ 1.0
Before Jan 1, 2027 9% ▲ 1.2
Before Dec 1, 2026 5% ▼ 3.0

Source markets for this story

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · September 30 98% · +5.2 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 63% · +2.8 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 15 99% · +0.8 24h
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 57% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 18%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 46% · +3.5 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13) Kalshi · Above 10 99% · +1.0 24h
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7? Polymarket · 30-34 39% · +7.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10% · +1.0 24h
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 28%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 26%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 8% · +1.0 24h
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 90% · -1.1 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Iran Reconstruction Funding 16% · +3.0 24h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 13%
The Money Talks — The Guns Have Gone Quiet — and the Money Says They'll Stay That Way
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S.

Crypto Market Structure Legislation Now Leans Toward Passage Before 2028

leaning yes (62%)

What had been probably not is now leaning yes — a conviction-tier flip driven by a sharp 15-point surge, recovering from a low set just two days ago. The money now sees passage as more likely than not, though the market's repeated boundary-crossings counsel against treating this as a done deal.

Updated 6:03 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $683K markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 47 days range 67% (20d ago) – 38% (2d ago) probably not → leaning yes 7 tier changes
U.S. leaning Democratic Party

The 2026 Senate Is a True Dead Heat

Democratic Party: a coin flip (50%)

Democrats have flipped to a nominal edge on Senate control, but at a coin-flip spread this thin, the House picture tells the real story — a Democratic House looks likely, making a full Democratic sweep of Congress the most probable single outcome heading into 2027.

Updated 5:13 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $42K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 46 days range 56% (40d ago) – 50% (21d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 3.5pp
U.S. odds favor Democratic

Democrats Are Favored to Win the 2028 Presidential Election

Democratic: leaning yes (65%)

The Republican bench looks fractured — with Vance clearing only 51% for the nomination and failing to top 24% in a general-election match, the GOP has no consolidating figure yet, leaving the path clear for whichever Democrat emerges from an equally unsettled primary.

Updated 2:08 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $129K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 36 days range 66% (0d ago) – 57% (34d ago) venues disagree 28.2pp