Finance

August Unemployment Will Almost Certainly Exceed 3.7%

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Unemployment in August”

Leading outcome Above 3.7% 95% Near-certain · C
24h move 0.0 pts Above 3.7%
Traded 24h $32K $43K all time
Resolves by 2026-09-04

Where the money stands

Above 3.7% 95% 0.0
Above 3.9% 95% ▲ 1.0
Above 3.8% 93% ▼ 1.0
Above 4.0% 86% ▼ 4.0
Above 4.1% 57% ▼ 23.0
Above 4.2% 36% ▼ 25.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Finance

No change 62% Leaning ↑ Rising ▲ 12.0 $1.8M today 11 markets A

The Fed Will Hold Rates in September — But a Hike Is Still on the Table

A pause in September is now the clear base case, but the broader policy path remains unsettled: a hike by year-end 2026 is still priced near a coin flip, and the money sees rate cuts as nearly off the table for 2026 entirely — Powell's window for easing has effectively closed.

Above 3.0% 99% Near-certain ▲ 1.0 $52K today 4d 4 markets B

US Inflation Will Still Be Above 3% This July

The disinflation story is over for now — price growth is locked above 3% through at least mid-summer, with the real debate shifted to whether it settles near 3.3% or pushes higher, a question the money has not yet resolved.

Before Jan 1, 2028 48% Contested ↓ Falling ▼ 13.0 $217K today 4 markets A

Crypto Market Structure Law Is Slipping Toward a Dead Heat

The near-term legislative path has effectively closed — a pre-August Senate vote is priced as nearly impossible — meaning any law now depends on a post-recess sprint through 2027, with the overall outcome too close to call.