World

SpaceX Very Likely Surpasses Eight Launches in September

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “How many launches will SpaceX have in September?”

very likely (92%)
Leading outcome Above 7 92% Very likely · C a coin flip → very likely
24h move ▲ 3.0 pts Above 7
Traded 24h $34K $354K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-01

Where the money stands

Above 7 92% ▲ 3.0
Above 8 82% ▲ 38.0
Above 9 6% ▼ 2.0
Above 10 2% ▼ 1.0
Above 11 1% 0.0
Above 12 1% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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World leaning Delcy Rodríguez

Delcy Rodríguez Now Leads Venezuela's Leadership Race in a Dead Heat

Delcy Rodríguez: a coin flip (50%)

What had been a near-certainty for Maduro is now a coin flip — his grip on power has cracked fast enough that his own vice president is the new frontrunner, signaling either a managed transfer or a rupture at the top of the regime.

Updated 9:40 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $621K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 53 days range 86% (25d ago) – 64% (0d ago) likely → a coin flip venues disagree 21.6pp
World

The US-Iran Ceasefire Holds — but a Lasting Deal Looks Out of Reach

very likely (95%)

The guns are staying quiet through September, but the architecture for peace is absent — no qualifying diplomatic meeting is likely before month's end, a final nuclear deal prices at just 10%, and the window for a durable agreement is closing fast.

Updated 11:17 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $763K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade A range 94% (1d ago) – 87% (0d ago)
World United Russia (ER) on track to win

United Russia Likely Dominates the Next Parliamentary Election

United Russia (ER): likely (80%)

Putin's party is consolidating its position as the dominant force heading into 2026 — an 81% chance of holding 325 or more seats signals not just a win but a near-total grip, with the Communists set to trail distantly in second. What had been a lean is now a firm expectation, though a market that has swung from 60% to 80% in under two months can still move.

Updated 12:06 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $3.5M markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 53 days range 80% (0d ago) – 60% (51d ago) resolves today trending in today's news leaning yes → likely 5 tier changes