World

A Pahlavi Return to Iran Becomes a Coin Flip as Ceasefire Holds

By Priced In News Staff

very unlikely (8%)

Leading outcome Yes 8% Very unlikely · A

24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Yes

Traded 24h $187K $1.8M all time

Resolves by 2027-01-01

Source markets for this story

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · September 4 100% · +4.5 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 62% · -0.7 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 30 86% · -5.0 24h

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 8% · +1.0 24h

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · +1.5 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? Polymarket · December 31 30% · -2.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 18%

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 60% · +2.0 24h

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 32% · -1.0 24h

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 42% · -2.0 24h

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 25% · -1.5 24h

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 92% · +2.2 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · -3.0 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8% · +1.0 24h

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 83%

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? Polymarket · December 31 20% · -0.5 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 8%

Israel military action against Yemen by...? Polymarket · September 30 6%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 8% · +1.0 24h