U.S.

Democrats Are Likely to Flip North Carolina's 3rd District

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory”

unlikely (23%)
Leading outcome Murphy, 1+ pts 23% Unlikely · Rising · A peak 23% · low 8% (2d ago) very unlikely → unlikely venues agree
24h move ▲ 13.9 pts Murphy, 1+ pts
Traded 24h $83K $296K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
Source markets 13 13 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Murphy, 1+ pts 23% ▲ 13.9
Murphy, 12+ pts 2% ▲ 1.6
Murphy, 6+ pts 1% ▲ 0.7
Murphy, 3+ pts 1% 0.1
Murphy, 9+ pts 1% ▲ 0.6
Murphy, 15+ pts 0% 0.3

Source markets for this story

NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Raymond Smith Jr. 75% · -5.0 24h
AZ-02 House winner? Kalshi · Eli Crane 95% · +18.9 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 14 to 16% 51% · +34.0 24h
AZ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Eli Crane (R) 94% · +22.9 24h
North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory Kalshi · Murphy, 1+ pts 23% · +13.9 24h
CA-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jay Obernolte (R) 90% · -0.7 24h
CA-23 House winner? Kalshi · Jay Obernolte 91%
Alaska House winner? Kalshi · Nick Begich III 95% · +6.7 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Polymarket · Democrats 14-16% 52% · +34.9 24h
AK-AL House Election Winner Polymarket · Republican Party 96% · +5.2 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) 100%
NC-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · Chuck Hubbard (D) 96% · +2.9 24h
CO-04 House Election Winner Polymarket · Eileen Laubacher (D) 99% · +10.0 24h
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S.

Hegseth Holds On — but His Grip on the Cabinet Has Visibly Weakened

probably not (42%)

What had been a leaning-yes call on Hegseth's departure has slipped back to probably not, yet the broader picture is turbulent: Ric Grenell looks more likely than not to exit, and impeachment odds against Trump himself remain elevated — suggesting the administration's personnel landscape stays unstable through year-end.

Updated 12:22 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $214K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 87 days range 100% (86d ago) – 38% (85d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → probably not 4 tier changes venues disagree 19.5pp
U.S.

Hegseth Is Very Likely Out as Defense Secretary Before Term's End

very likely (94%)

The question is no longer whether he goes but when — the mid-2027 window has surged to 89%, meaning bettors now see departure as a near-term rather than long-horizon event. His continued tenure looks increasingly like a matter of weeks or months, not years.

Updated 4:41 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $257K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 92 days range 96% (1d ago) – 7% (91d ago) venues disagree 4.0pp
U.S.

Buttigieg Surges Into Contention as Likeliest 2028 Announcement, but the Field Stays Open

probably not (39%)

A sharp jump from unlikely to probably-not-yet is not a declaration — it signals Buttigieg is repositioning publicly, but the broader 2028 Democratic picture remains genuinely unsettled, with Ossoff leading the nomination race at just 27% and no candidate commanding real conviction.

Updated 12:22 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $28K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 93 days range 52% (1d ago) – 12% (59d ago) trending in today's news unlikely → probably not 3 tier changes venues disagree 22.1pp