U.S.

Hormuz Stays Open This Week, but High-Volume Traffic Looks Impaired

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (98%)

Leading outcome Above 10 98% Virtually certain · Rising · A · tracked 7 days

24h move 0.0 pts Above 10

Traded 24h $43K $286K all time

Resolves by 2026-09-22 Today

Where the money stands

Above 10 98% 0.0

Above 15 97% 0.0

Above 20 92% ▼ 3.0

Above 25 35% ▼ 26.0

Above 30 4% ▼ 9.0

Above 35 4% ▲ 2.0

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 64% · +3.5 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · -1.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 25 96% · +5.0 24h

US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 35% · +2.0 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 70% · +2.0 24h

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Jared Kushner 38% · +5.0 24h

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 66% · +4.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 20% · +2.0 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · +0.5 24h

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 85% · -1.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/14 - 9/20) Kalshi · Above 10 98%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14? Polymarket · 25-29 41% · -6.2 24h

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 26% · -3.5 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 32% · -1.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%