Hormuz Traffic This Week Is Virtually Certain to Exceed 35 Transits
Source: Kalshi market “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)”
virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome
Above 10 99%
Virtually certain · Stable · A · tracked 7 days
probably not → virtually certain
24h move
0.0 pts
Above 10
Traded 24h
$48K
$232K all time
Resolves by
2026-09-15
Source markets
26
26 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Above 10
99%
0.0
Above 15
98%
0.0
Above 20
98%
0.0
Above 25
96%
▲
2.0
Above 35
95%
▲
60.0
Above 30
92%
▲
9.0
Source markets for this story
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Polymarket · September 4 100% · +4.8 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · September 30 86% · -5.0 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · December 31 61% · -1.5 24h
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 7% · +1.0 24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6% · +1.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 1%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Polymarket · December 31 30% · -2.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 1%
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
Polymarket · September 30 46% · -1.5 24h
Houthis enter Aden by...?
Polymarket · December 31 32% · -6.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 18%
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Polymarket · March 31, 2027 60% · +2.0 24h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 32% · -2.0 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 69% · +3.0 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · October 31 42% · -2.0 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 24% · -2.5 24h
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 93% · +3.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 7% · +0.5 24h
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · -3.0 24h
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 83%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 13% · -0.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 8%
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
Polymarket · September 30 6% · +1.2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Polymarket · Yes 8% · +1.5 24h
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