U.S.

Hormuz Transit Traffic Is Running Well Above Normal This Week

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (99%)

Leading outcome Above 15 99% Virtually certain · Stable · A · tracked 8 days likely → virtually certain 3 tier changes over tracking period

24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Above 15

Traded 24h $60K $325K all time

Resolves by 2026-10-27 Today

Where the money stands

Above 15 99% ▲ 1.0

Above 20 87% ▼ 1.0

Above 23 77% ▲ 10.0

Above 25 37% ▲ 7.0

Above 27 20% ▲ 3.0

Above 30 7% ▲ 1.0

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 24 100%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 60% · +1.0 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 24 100%

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...? Polymarket · December 31 29% · +3.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 88% · +7.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6% · +1.0 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25) Kalshi · Above 15 99% · +1.0 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12% · -1.0 24h

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 2% · -2.8 24h

Yoon out of custody before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 3% · -4.1 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 32%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 0%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12%

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Polymarket · Yes 1% · -1.1 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Abbas Araghchi 29%

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · November 30 42%

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) Polymarket · December 31 26% · -5.0 24h