U.S.

Hormuz Normalization Increasingly Looks Like a Post-2027 Problem

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?”

a coin flip (54%)
Resolved The money put Before Jan 1, 2029 at 72% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Before Jan 1, 2029 54% A coin flip · Falling · A · tracked 83 days peak 81% (53d ago) · low 43% (61d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 8 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 11.0 pts Before Jan 1, 2029
Traded 24h $289K $10.2M all time
Resolves by 2029-01-01
Source markets 26 26 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Before Jan 1, 2029 54% ▼ 11.0
Before Jul 1, 2028 49% ▼ 12.0
Before Jan 1, 2028 44% ▼ 6.0
Before Nov 1, 2027 42% ▼ 2.0
Before Dec 1, 2027 41% ▼ 2.0
Before Oct 1, 2027 38% 0.0

Source markets for this story

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 22 92% · -3.9 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 90% · -6.3 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 62% · +3.5 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 54% · -11.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 21 95% · -2.4 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 85% · -6.4 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 78% · -2.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket · December 31 8% · +1.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Jared Kushner 38% · +5.5 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14% · +2.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 31% · +0.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 62%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 32% · +2.5 24h
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · +0.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6% · +1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 30% · -0.5 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 42% · +7.0 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 14%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 61%
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Polymarket · Yes 4% · -1.1 24h
The Money Talks — Iran's Blockade Is Likely Over by Year's End — But Don't Expect the Strait to Follow
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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