World

July 2026 Is Unlikely to Break the All-Time Heat Record

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “This Jul 2026 is the hottest July ever?”

unlikely (14%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 22% when this article was published. This market has since closed.
Leading outcome Yes 14% Unlikely · C
24h move ▼ 4.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $43K $183K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-16 in 5 days
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Iran's Blockade Ends Well Before Year's Close, but Hormuz Stays Dark for Months

likely (81%)

A ceasefire is already treated as fait accompli, yet the Strait itself remains effectively closed — meaning the military confrontation is winding down while the economic chokehold on global shipping persists deep into the second half of the year, with full normalisation still a coin-flip even by December.

Updated 2:48 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
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World

The Houthis Are Still Hitting Ships

very likely (95%)

That people stake real money on which specific date the next strike lands — rather than whether one lands at all — reveals how thoroughly Red Sea disruption has normalized: the question is no longer if, but when, with full Bab el-Mandeb closure still a tail risk rather than a forecast.

Updated 1:12 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Holds a Narrow Lead to Become Israel's Next Prime Minister

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (52%)

A dead-heat signal in a high-attention race: Eizenkot's 52% edge over Netanyahu's 32% is real but razor-thin, and Lieberman's quiet uptick suggests the field hasn't fully consolidated — Israel's post-war political order remains genuinely unsettled.

Updated 4:35 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $22K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B trending in today's news