Finance

Gold Looks Unlikely to Reach $4,450 This Week but Holds Well Above $4,215

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Gold 15 min · $4,404.54 target”

probably not (37%)
Leading outcome Yes 37% Probably not · B
24h move 0.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $44K $53K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-13 Today
Source markets 4 4 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

Gold 15 min · $4,404.54 target Kalshi · Yes 37%
Gold price on August 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Kalshi · Above $4215 100%
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026? Polymarket · ↑ $4,500 66% · -2.9 24h
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of August 10 2026? Polymarket · ↑ $4,450 43% · -24.0 24h
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance odds favor No change

The Fed Increasingly Appears Set to Hold Rates in September

No change: leaning yes (62%)

A hike this year is still a live 56% scenario, but the September window is narrowing — the emerging picture is a Fed that pauses through autumn before eventually moving, with cuts all but ruled out for 2026.

Updated 4:28 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.8M markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A
Finance

The Clarity Act Will Likely Not Become Law in 2026

unlikely (18%)

Even with crypto-friendly political winds, the legislative path is too congested — broader market structure legislation gets slightly better odds but still falls well short of even odds, signaling that the industry's regulatory moment keeps getting deferred.

Updated 5:59 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $845K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B
Finance

Grok's Next Model Will Clear the 1440 Arena Benchmark

virtually certain (98%)

The ceiling, not the floor, is where the uncertainty lies — traders are virtually certain the model clears 1440, but the sharp collapse in higher-score contracts suggests expectations for a record-shattering debut have been walked back sharply.

Updated 7:46 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $25K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade A