Finance

Diesel and Gas Prices Remain Firmly Elevated Through Mid-September

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Diesel prices tomorrow”

virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome Above $5.925 99% Virtually certain · B
24h move 0.0 pts Above $5.925
Traded 24h $43K $43K all time
Resolves by 2026-09-11 Today
Source markets 6 6 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Above $5.925 99% 0.0
Above $5.930 99% 0.0
Above $5.935 99% 0.0
Above $5.940 99% 0.0
Above $5.945 99% 0.0
Above $5.950 99% 0.0

Source markets for this story

US gas prices tomorrow Kalshi · Above 4.2350 99%
US gas prices this week Kalshi · Above 3.9800 99%
Diesel prices tomorrow Kalshi · Above $5.925 99%
New Jersey gas prices tomorrow Kalshi · Above 4.3250 99%
Ohio gas prices tomorrow Kalshi · Above 4.1450 99%
Florida gas prices tomorrow Kalshi · Above 4.1100 99%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance odds favor 25 bps increase

The Fed Is Now Leaning Toward a September Rate Hike

25 bps increase: leaning yes (64%)

What had been a coin flip is now a clear lean: the money increasingly prices a tightening cycle resuming this autumn, with no cuts expected in 2026 and a hike by October also gaining ground — a significant shift in the interest-rate outlook that puts pressure on borrowers and rate-sensitive assets.

Updated 10:06 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $6.3M markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 44 days range 74% (25d ago) – 48% (35d ago) resolves in 5 days 12 tier changes
Finance

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Very Likely to Hit 5% This Year

very likely (94%)

What was leaning probable yesterday is now a near-conviction call — but this market has swung across four certainty rungs since tracking began, so the 94% reading reflects a sharp directional bet, not a settled consensus; a reversal remains plausible.

Updated 6:05 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $20K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 42 days range 94% (3d ago) – 40% (2d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → very likely 5 tier changes
Finance leaning No change

The ECB's October Rate Decision Is Now a Coin Flip

25 bps increase: a coin flip (49%)

What had been a likely hold is now genuinely open — a hike in October is essentially as probable as no move, and a market that has crossed conviction thresholds three times since tracking began could shift again before the meeting. The ECB's credibility on any forward guidance is the casualty here.

Updated 8:26 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 26 days range 92% (25d ago) – 49% (0d ago) likely → a coin flip 3 tier changes