The ECB's October Decision Is Now a Dead Heat Between Hold and Hike
Source: Polymarket market “ECB Interest Rates: October 2026”
No change: a coin flip (52%)
Leading outcome
No change 52%
A coin flip · C · tracked 24 days
unlikely → a coin flip
24h move
▼
37.5 pts
No change
Traded 24h
$21K
$79K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-29
Source markets
2
2 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
No change
52%
▼
37.5
25 bps increase
49%
▲
39.0
50+ bps increase
0%
0.0
50+ bps decrease
0%
0.0
25 bps decrease
0%
0.1
Source markets for this story
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026
Polymarket · 25 bps increase 100%
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
Polymarket · No change 52% · -37.5 24h
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