Curiosities

A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Is Likely Before 2028

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?”

leaning yes (67%)
Resolved The money put Before 2028 at 57% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Before 2028 67% Leaning yes · Rising · C · tracked 47 days peak 87% (37d ago) · low 54% (46d ago) 3 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 5.0 pts Before 2028
Traded 24h $45K $806K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01

Where the money stands

Before 2028 67% ▼ 5.0
Before May 1, 2027 43% ▼ 4.0
Before Apr 1, 2027 42% ▲ 1.0
Before Mar 1, 2027 29% ▼ 4.0
Before Feb 1, 2027 24% ▼ 1.0
Before Jan 1, 2027 20% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Curiosities

Curiosities one clear front-runner

AI Solving Another Millennium Prize Problem This Year Is Anyone's Guess

0: probably not (42%)

The fact that serious money is split almost evenly on whether AI will crack one of mathematics' hardest open problems in a single calendar year captures the disorienting pace of the moment — what people are really staking money on is how seriously to take AI's claim to mathematical genius, a question that would have seemed absurd just a few years ago.

Updated 9:08 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $16K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 12 days range 50% (5d ago) – 34% (9d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → probably not 3 tier changes
Curiosities

AI Is Likely to Crack Another Millennium Prize Problem by 2027

likely (84%)

A second proof would confirm that AI has permanently entered mathematics at its deepest level — not as a tool but as a co-author, with the Hodge Conjecture now a 60% favorite as the next target. Conviction has been volatile, crossing rungs three times since tracking began, so the story is the direction, not the certainty.

Updated 11:42 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $28K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 12 days range 93% (10d ago) – 66% (5d ago) 3 tier changes