Finance

A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Still Leans Toward Happening Before 2028

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?”

likely (84%)
Resolved The money put Before 2028 at 57% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Before 2028 84% Likely · Rising · C · tracked 100 days peak 87% (90d ago) · low 54% (99d ago) leaning yes → likely 4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 9.0 pts Before 2028
Traded 24h $49K $704K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01

Where the money stands

Before 2028 84% ▲ 9.0
Before May 1, 2027 75% ▲ 19.0
Before Apr 1, 2027 73% ▲ 8.0
Before Mar 1, 2027 56% ▲ 27.0
Before Feb 1, 2027 54% ▲ 25.0
Before Jan 1, 2027 34% ▲ 22.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance

Bitcoin Is Virtually Certain to Revisit $70,000 Before End of 2026

virtually certain (100%)

What had been a leaning-yes call is now a near-certainty — but this market has crossed conviction rungs 27 times, so the signal demands respect without finality. The near-term picture is sharper: traders price a better-than-even chance of a dip to $67,500 this month alone, suggesting the move toward $70,000 is not a distant scenario but an imminent stress test.

Updated 10:46 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $636K markets read 27 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 107 days range 92% (83d ago) – 42% (8d ago) trending in today's news probably not → leaning yes 27 tier changes venues agree
Finance

A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Is Now Likely Before End of 2027

likely (83%)

What had been leaning yes has crossed into likely, recovering from a low of 17% set roughly three months ago to reach a new peak. The timing signal has sharpened sharply: a February 2027 window is now a coin flip, suggesting the announcement could arrive far sooner than the outer deadline implies — though this market's volatility warrants caution about treating any rung as settled.

Updated 10:46 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $64K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 107 days range 79% (59d ago) – 17% (106d ago) a coin flip → likely 7 tier changes
Finance 25 bps increase on track to win

The Fed Is Very Likely to Hike Rates in December

25 bps increase: very likely (90%)

A tightening cycle is extending well into 2027 — with no cuts priced for all of 2026 and March 2027 hike odds sitting at 60%, the Fed's pivot is not coming. The December move looks increasingly like the middle of a sequence, not the end of one.

Updated 10:20 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.4M markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 102 days range 88% (0d ago) – 44% (69d ago) 15 tier changes