U.S.

Democrats Are Virtually Certain to Sweep the House and Senate in 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Blue wave in 2026?”

virtually certain (100%)
Leading outcome Yes 100% Virtually certain · Stable · A · tracked 76 days peak 92% · low 72% (63d ago) likely → virtually certain 6 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 19.1pp
24h move ▲ 12.8 pts Yes
Traded 24h $5.2M $10.7M all time
Resolves by 2027-02-01
Source markets 49 49 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Scott Colom 84% · +70.0 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Polymarket · None 85% · +51.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 100% · +23.4 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 87% · +17.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 45 81% · +64.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 100% · +44.7 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 100% · +12.8 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 3+ pts 100% · +52.9 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · 56 75% · +68.2 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · -5.2 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Scott Colom (D) 83% · +70.3 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 85% · +13.2 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 12 to 14% 75% · +59.0 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 2+ pts 100% · +24.9 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket · Nithya Raman 98% · +58.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Kalshi · At least 46 99%
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Mississippi 96% · +93.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 44 79% · +73.2 24h
Florida Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Moody, 1+ pts 98% · +17.1 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ossoff, 2+ pts 100% · +5.7 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 12%+ 95% · +91.5 24h
Ohio Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Brown, 1+ pts 100% · +34.9 24h
Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win? Kalshi · Democratic sweep 87% · +49.0 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cooper, 3+ pts 100% · +6.3 24h
Ohio Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Acton, 3+ pts 100% · +28.9 24h
2028 popular vote margin of victory? Kalshi · Democratic by 9.0% or more 67% · +45.0 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Jackson, 2+ pts 100% · +44.8 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Polymarket · Democrats 12-14% 74% · +59.2 24h
Nebraska Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ricketts, 1+ pts 99% · +35.1 24h
Kansas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Hamilton, 0.5+ pts 99% · +37.1 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 97% · +16.9 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · Below 190 99% · +54.9 24h
2028 Senate winner Kalshi · Democratic party 87% · +18.0 24h
Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028) Kalshi · Above 56 58% · +47.0 24h
South Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Andrews, 2+ pts 100% · +71.9 24h
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? Kalshi · At least 210 99%
Battleground Senate Combo: which states will Democrats win? Kalshi · Democratic sweep 83% · +34.0 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms? Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 99% · +69.3 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +8.9 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · El-Sayed 6-9% 94% · +72.0 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round) Polymarket · Ossoff 18%+ 79% · +70.2 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 93% · +25.7 24h
Closest Senate Race? Polymarket · Mississippi 95% · +92.1 24h
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Moody 0-3% 45% · +22.1 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 82% · +57.5 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No recession 65% · +17.2 24h
Alaska Senate loser concedes by...? Polymarket · November 4 38% · -16.0 24h
Dem sweep & US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by end of 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No US stake 69% · +17.4 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas 70% · +19.4 24h
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