Harry Kane Leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or Race With the Field Closing In
Source: Kalshi market “Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?”
Harry Kane: leaning yes (55%)
Leading outcome
Harry Kane 55%
Leaning yes · Rising · B · tracked 53 days
peak 71% (22d ago) · low 50% (52d ago)
7 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 6.2pp
24h move
0.0 pts
Harry Kane
Traded 24h
$129K
$9.2M all time
Resolves by
2026-12-31
Source markets
2
2 markets · all agree
Where the money stands
Harry Kane
55%
0.0
Lamine Yamal
24%
▼
2.0
Lionel Messi
9%
▲
1.0
Kylian Mbappe
8%
0.0
Rodri
5%
▲
1.0
Erling Haaland
1%
0.0
Source markets for this story
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
Kalshi · Harry Kane 55%
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Polymarket · Harry Kane 56% · +1.4 24h
Get an alert when Ballon Dor 2026 moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.