Jodar Has All But Defeated Musetti in Their Round of 32 Match

Rafael Jodar is on the cusp of eliminating Lorenzo Musetti at the National Bank Open, with the match having turned decisively in the Spaniard's favor. Jodar claimed the opening set and has held his advantage firmly enough that the money — nearly $4 million staked on this contest — now prices his victory at 97%, a figure that leaves Musetti's chances in statistical footnote territory.

The signal here is unusually clean. The first set is already resolved in Jodar's favor, confirmed at certainty by in-play pricing, and the match-winner contract swung 38 points toward Jodar in the past 24 hours on the deepest tennis market active today. That volume — more than $3.3 million traded in a single session — is not the noise of casual punters; it reflects informed, active repositioning as the match unfolded. One thin outlier market priced Jodar far lower, but with roughly 160 times less money behind it than the dominant venue, that reading carries little weight against the consensus.

What makes the picture richer is how Jodar wins, not just that he does. The money pricing an 84% chance the match exceeds 17.5 total games, alongside a 94% probability Jodar closes it two sets to love, tells a specific story: this is expected to be a thorough but not entirely brief victory. Musetti, who arrived in Montreal as a capable grass-and-clay mover, has found no traction. The first set went fully against him, and the structural read is that he will lose the second without salvaging a set of his own.

The broader tournament picture absorbs the result without drama. Jodar's win advances him, and a 13% chance of lifting the Montreal title reflects genuine respect for the draw ahead — a meaningful bump from where he started, but honest about how much tennis remains. Elsewhere in the round of 32, Aryna Sabalenka is virtually certain to advance on the women's side, while Bartunkova's match against Anisimova sits in a genuine dead heat that will resolve without the comfort of a clear favorite.

For Jodar, the moment matters beyond the round. A straight-sets dismantling of Musetti, a player who can trouble top-ten opponents on his best day, sends a message about form heading into the later rounds. The money has taken notice — his tournament odds ticked upward even as he played — and the cluster of signals across this match reads as one of the cleaner, more decisive outcomes in this draw's early going.